CHICAGO (Reuters) - traders and investors of Netflix are cribbing for a significant move in the price of the shares after earnings Monday afternoon - simply not as big as usual.
The price of the shares of the film rental company should spend 10 per cent at the end of this week, based on his options in the short term commercial. This would be less than normal.
The volatile stock usually travels 13 percent on the day after pay, judging by the last eight quarters, according to Bespoke Investment Group of Harrison, New York.
"Options market says expects a blow of lower price from events range four recent gains", said Steve Place, founder of the analytics option farm investingwithoptions.com of Mobile, Alabama.
"But I think that the options market may be wrong and is under the move," said place.
Netflix earnings are set to be released shortly after the closing bell.
Front week overlap $250 in cash at the price of $23.97 Monday suggests a movement of approximately 9.6%, in both directions by Friday said place. A straddle is a piece of volatility is to buy a put option and an option to purchase with the same date price and expiration strike.
TD Ameritrade Chief Joe Kinahan said derivatives strategist weekly options expiring this Friday are prices in a little more than 8 per cent movement upward or downward.
BET seems to be leaning slightly on the bearish side, although downward Paris on Netflix Inc. have been losers, with the stock 355 per cent since the beginning of 2010.
Options volume is heavy in Netflix about 63,000 contracts negotiated through the first half of the Monday session, led by the weekly $215 in the short term and strike of $250 is expiring this Friday, compared to the current price of the stock of $251.74.
Weekly calls $295 and $290 and $210 square was also popular, according to the option analytics firm commercial alert.
In the last eight quarters, the move of the day post-absolute earnings average was 13.2% and 14.1% in the last four quarters, according to Bespoke.
MANY PARIS SHORT
The actions were a favorite target of short-sellers for months. However, except for a brief sell-off mid-February, Netflix has increased steadily.
Actions Netflix hit a record Monday of $254.98 earnings in the first quarter. The high short interest could push the rally further if the numbers are high. The consensus is for earnings of $1.08 per share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/s
Bulls on Netflix support that the company will continue to expand its scope, taking part of cable companies and others.
Bears say the stock is overvalued, and data from Thomson Reuters StarMine supports this idea, putting the intrinsic value of the shares to only $87.10, based on a compound growth rate annual 15 percent per year over the next 10 years.
In contrast, the price of the shares now involves growth of 27% per year over the next decade.
Nearly 20 per cent of the outstanding float is being shorted, and its large institutional property and high volatility are vulnerable shorts, according to data from Thomson Reuters StarMine.
StarMine is indicator of squeeze short of Netflix to 90 on a scale of 1 to 100 in terms of probability of a tightening of short. This happens when a stock rises and investors who sold short rush in to buy shares to limit losses.
Heavy activity in the weekly puts $ 215 - which would mean substantial losses on the current price-suggests concern that the stock will fall.
In the 10 days, investors bought 1.06 places for each call option as a new position on U.S. options exchanges, according to the Schaeffer investment research.
This is higher than that 59% of the readings in the past year, indicating that there is a slight downward oblique compensation, said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist for investment of Schaeffer. .
The data of the International Securities Exchange, owned by Deutsche Boerse Eurex unit, the PHLX options instead, Nasdaq OMX Group Inc., and the Chicago Board Options Exchange belongs to CBOE Holdings Inc..
"This is not an extreme reading," he said, "but it shows a little of the position of skepticism Monday compensation."
(Reported by Doris Frankel.) (Editing by Jan Paschal)
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